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First Round QB Hits & Misses Since 2010

As we do every off-season, we pontificate about the quarterbacks in the upcoming draft as we predict where a certain player may land in the NFL. While we don't have a quarterback class in 2022 as hyped up as last years draft class, there are teams that need a new starting QB and look for them through the college ranks.


Some of the quarterbacks going into the 2022 NFL Draft are grabbing a few headlines and some of these guys will be a hit and most will be a miss. That's what history tells us when we look back at quarterbacks drafted in the first round, regardless if they're the 1st pick or the 32nd. Come April 28th, during the first round of the draft, we may hear names like Kenny Pickett, Matt Corral, Desmond Ridder, Malik Willis, Sam Howell and Carson Strong. We'll see how many get drafted in round 1 and who will hit and who will miss.


courtesy of Browns Wire - USA Today


Let's take a look at the last decade and see how many of these first round quarterbacks hit and how many missed.


2010: 1st pick Sam Bradford, 25th pick Tim Tebow - 2 Misses

2011: 1st pick Cam Newton, 8th pick Jake Locker, 10th pick Blaine Gabbert, 12th pick Christian Ponder - 1 Hit, 3 Misses

2012: 1st pick Andrew Luck, 2nd pick Robert Griffin III, 8th pick Ryan Tannehill, 22nd pick Brandon Weeden - 2 Hits, 2 Misses

2013: 16th pick E.J. Manuel - 1 Miss

2014: 3rd pick Blake Bortles, 22nd pick Johnny Manziel, 32nd pick Teddy Bridgewater - 3 Misses

2015: 1st pick Jameis Winston, 2nd pick Marcus Mariota - 2 Misses

2016: 1st pick Jared Goff, 2nd pick Carson Wentz - 2 Misses

2017: 2nd pick Mitch Trubisky, 10th pick Patrick Mahomes, 12th DeSaun Watson - 2 Hits, 1 Miss

2018: 1st pick Baker Mayfield, 3rd pick Sam Darnold, 7th pick Josh Allen, 10th pick Josh Rosen, 32 pick Lamar Jackson - 3 Misses, 2 Hits

2019: 1st pick Kyler Murray, 6th pick Daniel Jones, 15th pick Dwayne Haskins - 2 Misses, 1 Hit

2020: 1st pick Joe Burrow, 5th pick Tua Tagovailoa, 6th pick Justin Herbert, 26th pick Jordan Love - 2 1/2 Hits, 1 Miss

2021: 1st pick Trevor Lawrence, 2nd pick Zach Wilson, 3rd pick Trey Lance, 11th pick Justin Fields, 15th pick Mac Jones - The jury is still out on these guys as some haven't played much and others are surrounded by bad teams. So far it's fair to say that Mac Jones has been a hit as he helped the Patriots get to the playoffs. But we'll give this class another year or two.


From what I just wrote, it's very clear that drafting quarterbacks in the first round is not hit or miss. It's more of a miss a lot, and hit a little bit. According to my calculations that's 22 misses and 10.5 hits! As I was going through the past decades first round quarterbacks, I didn't even realize how lopsided it actually was. My math says that over twice as many first round QB picks are clear misses. I will take time to look back at other drafts in other decades, but this being the most recent makes it the most relevant.

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