A bet you can bank on and why the #NFL just added more stress to my life
You know what I hate most about the schedule this year? It's the fact that the Giants and Cowboys are playing each other on Thanksgiving. I host Thanksgiving and it's one of my favorite holidays aside from my birthday. Yes, I believe everyone's birthday is a holiday because, well you made it another year in this god forsaken world and that should be celebrated. In my case I was actually born on a National holiday and every so many years my birthday does fall on the actual holiday so, yes technically my birthday is a holiday and I love nothing more than a day dedicated to me. What I don't love is added stress in my life and this Thanksgiving game will give me exactly that - MORE STRESS! Although, my stress levels were pretty high trying to predict the AFC West so I guess this is just preparing me for that Giants v. Cowboys game in November.
The 3rd and 3 Podcast will do our official prediction show with win/loss records, divisional winners and post season predictions sometime in August so I'm not going to predict records but I am going to predict the over/under for the 2022 season. Let's roll.
AFC EAST
Buffalo: Over/Under 11.5 – They won 11 games last year but I think we can all agree they should have won more. Buffalo has a better roster this year and let’s not forget they acquired Von Miller too. This division is improving and the Bills have their share of tough stretches in the schedule but I think the offseason moves the Bills made will get them a couple additional wins.
Nikki Says: OVER
Miami: Over/Under 8.5 – If that Defense can keep up what we saw out of them last year I think they stand a real chance to get the over here. Jury is still out on Tua and rightfully so. If he can’t take that next step forward this team will be stuck in neutral. On paper I think you can give them about 7 wins off the bat and Miami’s defense will carry this team.
Nikki Says: OVER
Patriots: Over/Under 8.5 – Pat’s still have big questions at linebacker and cornerback. Mac Jones needs to work on his decision making and you have Matt Patricia & Joe Judge taking lead roles on the offensive coaching staff. I don’t love this. I also don’t love betting against Bill Belichick because I usually end up regretting it but right now it feels a lot has to happen for them to hit the over.
Nikki Says: UNDER
Jets: Over/Under 5.5 - Considering the over is more than they won last year this might be a tall order for the Jets. If the Jets can’t clear at least 6 games I really don’t even know what to say about this franchise anymore. This team has been rebuilding for like 50 years, so I think winning more than 5 games is not an unreasonable request at this point. The roster has improved but the difference between an abysmal 4 wins and something like 8 or 9 wins is going to depend heavily on Zach Wilson.
Nikki Says: OVER because how the hell can they not at this point??
AFC NORTH
Ravens: Over/Under 9.5 – This pretty much all depends on if Lamar stays healthy and if they can keep their running backs healthy past week 1. Since Lamar took over halfway through the 2018 season, he is 37-12 which is only 2nd in winning percentage behind Pat Mahomes. Without Lamar? The Raven are 2-5 over the past 3 seasons. So, as I always say with this team, the Ravens will go however Lamar goes.
Nikki Says: OVER
Bengals: Over /Under 9.5 - Bengals will need another strong defensive performance and the offense needs to continue to click like it did. Another year of Burrow and Ja'Marr Chase to terrorize this division is not something these other 3 teams are looking forward to. I know a lot of people are on the "Bengals will take a step back" train and that's ok. Just don't try to hop on the "I told you so" train later this year when Joe Burrow is doing it again. This division comes down to Cincinnati and Baltimore.
Nikki Says: OVER – because I have faith unlike these haters
Browns: Over/Under 9.5 – Well like everyone else I’m basing this off of DeShaun Watsons availability. Will he get suspended under the code of conduct policy? He might and if he does I think the Browns are in for a rough start and they will find themselves fighting an uphill battle. Too much uncertainty at the QB position for me.
Nikki Says – UNDER
Steelers: Over /Under7.5 – Whatever success the Steelers end up having I am going to attribute most of that to the defense which accounts for 58% of their win total. We really aren’t sure about the QB play yet and that OL needs some work. I think they can get the over, but it might not be as easy as it has been for them when you’ve got Big Ben back there making shit happen. Whether its Trubisky at QB or Pickett it doesn’t really matter because they can’t miss a beat, not in this division.
Nikki Says: OVER – but just barely
AFC SOUTH
Texans: Over/Under 4.5 – If I take the over that means I have to put some faith in this improved offense and Davis Mills who as we saw, can ball out. I know playing the AFC West isn’t easy but I’m going to roll with a little faith here and say Houston gets to at least 5 wins.
Nikki Says: OVER
Colts: Over/Under 9.5 - If Matt Ryan can reach his potential here and the Colts WRs like Pittman Jr can step up and help take some of the reliance off Jonathan Taylor the Colts have a real shot this season. They have a couple tough games – Chiefs week 3 and Denver week 5 but their schedule is not too bad otherwise. I think the Colts will be right back in the thick of it. Minus the malfunction of Carson Wentz this time.
Nikki Says: OVER
Jacksonville: Over /Under 6.5 – Jags start off with the Colts, Chargers, Commanders and Eagles in which 3 of those will be tough. Then they hit week 9 and have to deal with the Raiders, Chiefs and Ravens. They get a little bit of a reprieve after that but the Jags end the season with the Titans twice in 4 weeks and the Cowboys. I just don’t really see where 7 or 8 wins can come from.
Nikki Says: UNDER
Titans: Over/Under 9.5 – Well this won’t be easy. Chiefs, Broncos, Packers, Bengals, Chargers and Buffalo…oh my! Titans have always won more than 9 games with Mike Vrabel as head coach, but I don’t really love Ryan Tannehill. I know I give him a hard time but it’s because I think he holds this offense back when they can’t really afford to be held back in the AFC. I want to err on the side of stat’s and facts and say they will go over but it’s a tough call this year.
Nikki Says – OVER – because Mike Vrabel is a damn good head coach
AFC WEST - damn this division
Broncos: Over/Under 10 – If the Broncos want to go over that means they have to either break the losing streak to the Chiefs or win all of their home games. Which is not impossible. They have the Chiefs week 14 & 17 which, sucks for Denver because that’s usually when the Chiefs really turn on the fire power. Russell Wilson can do a lot and I do like this young defense but the offense has some concerns.
Nikki Says: UNDER
Chiefs: Over/under 10.5 – Crazy to even think about betting against Pat Mahome & Andy Reid but the wins this year will be harder for them than most years. Chiefs have the 6th toughest schedule and before their bye week in week 8 they face the Chargers, Raiders, Bills, Cardinals, Colts, Bucs and 49ers. Chiefs have won at least 12 games in the past four seasons so I am confident they can figure out how to get the over here.
Nikki Says: OVER
Raiders: Over/Under 8.5- This seems a little insulting doesn’t it? Raiders did just come off of a 10-win season, but that OL is a major concern and so is the end of their schedule. Weeks 13-17 are Chargers, Rams, Pats, Steelers, 49ers but if anyone can run this gauntlet its Derek Carr and Devante Adams.
Nikki Says: OVER
Chargers: Over/Under 10 – Out the 4 AFC West schedules they have the most favorable least headache inducing schedule. What they can’t do is fall into an 0-2 hole right off the bat against the Raiders and the Chiefs. Not in this division. They do get the Jags and Texans after that so hopefully worst-case scenario for the Chargers after the first 4 weeks is 2-2. Not to say they can’t come back from an 0-2 start but against division rivals is not really ideal. Brandon Staley has way too many questionable calls, and this division is coming down to splitting hairs.
Nikki Says: OVER – trying to predict this division is headache inducing
NFC EAST - Sigh
Eagles: Over/Under 8.5 – Eagles have a pretty favorable schedule and they won 9 games last year. Now you add AJ Brown, another year for Jalen Hurts who has developed at a rapid pace and the great draft they had? It pains me to say it but I think the Eagles are in for a great season & I think this ends up moving closer to 9 anyway.
Nikki Says: OVER – unfortunately
Cowboys: Over/Under 10.5 – Why do we even bother with them? Aren’t they winning the Superbowl this year? That's what their fans and the media tell me. Cowboys won 12 last year but this year they don’t have Amari Cooper, Randy Gregory or Connor Williams. Their draft wasn’t great either but its 10.5 because they are tied with the Commanders for easiest strength of schedule. OF COURSE THEY HAVE THE EAIEST SCHEDULE. So yeh, I’ll go over 10.5 sure, I will watch them get their fan base all hyped up and then break their hearts like they normally do.
Nikki Says: OVER
Giants: Over/Under 7 – Yikes. Seems ambitious doesn’t it considering the Giants won 4 games last year. LOL what a clown show last season was. Anyway, that would be a 4 game improvement to hit the over. That’s a tall order. The Giants first four games are; Titans, Panthers, Cowboys, Bears and then it’s off to London for the Packers and then back home at Metlife ( the worst stadium in the country, I swear) for a matchup against the Ravens. Maybe they get 2 wins out of this stretch? The end of the season is a divisional nightmare and by then who knows what this team looks like. Do we get a full healthy season out of Daniel Jones? We haven’t yet. I’m optimistic about the future of this franchise but not about them hitting the over.
Nikki Says – UNDER – please just don’t let the season be over before October again. Give me some hope
Commanders: Over/Under 7.5 – Well, that’s only half a win more than last year and for all intents and purposes Wentz is an “upgrade” at QB and the offense should be better overall. They are also tied with the Cowboys for easiest strength of schedule. I wouldn’t be surprised if they hit the over and win 8 games. Might even eek out 9 on a fluke or something.
Nikki Says: OVER
NFC NORTH
Green Bay: Over/Under 11 – Why would we have any reason to believe that the Packers cant win more than 11 games? Other than their Special Teams unit. Davante Adams is not the be all end all for this team and let's not forget they were 7-0 without him for the past 3 seasons. Matt LaFleur has put together a 13 win season every year he has been with the Packers. I don’t see why he cant do it again.
Nikki Says: OVER - and throw in a division win while you're at it
Bears: Over/Under 6.5 – The Bears play 13 games before they get a bye and I know I was concerned about that last year with the Saints but these are no Saints lol this team isn’t even built to contend for the playoffs let alone make it through 13 weeks with a winning record before the bye. Justin Fields must build more chemistry with his offense and that means relying more on the defense. I like the Bears defense I just don’t know realistically how long that unit can carry the team.
Nikki Says: UNDER
Lions: Over/Under 6 – SO MANY people on this team have to step it up in order for the Lions to hit the over. My main question here is can Jared Goff be successful without Sean McVay?? This defense has to step it up big time and I know they added weapons on offense, but I am just not sold on this team or Jared Goff. Never was. The Lions haven't won 6 games since 2018.
Nikki Says – UNDER
Vikings: Over/Under 9 – This roster has high upside potential and they are a talented group that has averaged 9 wins a year for the past 9 seasons. This division is weak AF and I don’t think the over will be an issue here.
Nikki Says – OVER
NFC SOUTH
Bucs: Over/Under 11 – Bucs have a much harder schedule this year. Last year they had the 29th ranked schedule and they were ravaged with injuries however they still managed to go 13-4 last season. The Saints own the Bucs outright and Brady is 0-4 against them in the regular season so I’ll give a pair of losses there. I know they have a new HC so they might stumble for another game or 2 but the Bucs got Brady. I know people hate the whole “never bet against Brady” rule but it exists for a reason.
Nikki Says: OVER
Falcons: Over/Under 5.5 - Well Vegas isn’t high on the Falcons. I think it's with good reason though and based on the roster it’s a bit of a tough sell. They could surprise though. They usually do at some point in the season. I could see them winning 1 maybe 2 games throughout their first 6 games. Atlanta is such a weird team, and they often forget how to play football. They are mind boggling to watch sometimes.
Nikki Says: UNDER
Panthers: Over/under 6 - Panthers haven’t had a winning season since they went 11-5 in 2017. To go over 6 that’s one more win than the team has had in each of the past 3 seasons. The also means whoever is playing QB has to be consistent and productive and that seems to be a bit of a pipe dream at this point.
Nikki Says – UNDER
Saints: Over/Under 7.5 – Wow. Tough crowd. 7.5 is too low considering they won 9 games last season while setting the record for most starters at 58. Saints will get a healthy Jameis Winston and Michael Thomas back and now you add Landry and Olave…7.5 seems whack to me. Call it the Sean Payton factor I guess? You call it what you want but I will call this a money maker and I would bet this right now.
Nikki Says – OVER – take it to the bank!
NFC WEST
Rams: Over/Under 10.5- Pressures on right? Yes, the Rams have the toughest schedule but they had the 2nd toughest schedule last season and still won 12 games despite all the Matt Stafford haters out there!! And they will damn sure do it again!
Nikki Says – OVER
Cardinals: Over/Under 9.5 - Arizona would have to have a REALLY strong start without DeAndre Hopkins to even think about going over 9 wins and they also love to have late-season collapses. I think the D.Hop suspension really ends up really hurting them.
Nikki Says: UNDER
Niners: Over/Under 10 – Niners won 10 last year and they have a very manageable schedule although we aren’t quite sure who exactly will be on the field …Trey Lance, Jimmy G, Deebo? I don’t think that will matter too much because week 7 against the Chiefs is the first time the 49ers win probability dips below 46% so I think they are in good shape for the most part and their roster is mostly in tact.
Nikki Says: OVER
Seahawks: Over/Under 6 – The Seahawks have talent on this roster but who the hell is playing Quarterback? I’m sorry but that is a HUGE piece of information we need. Is it Geno Smith?? This team feels like that math problem where “not enough information” is one of the choices. I don’t have enough information here to assume they could get over 6 wins.
Nikki Says: UNDER
My prediction rate has been pretty good on the Podcast so far so I look forward to seeing if I can de-throne my co-hosts again because we just have to turn everything into a competition. Let me know what you guys think. Am I way off base on my over/under predictions and would you bet the over on the Saints at 7.5 right now? Slide into those comments like you would a DM and let me know!